Retail capitulated in tech (Market update)
Last Wednesday retail investors sold $300 million of ETFs in a single day, the largest daily sale on record. That beats the $260 million set during the March 2020 pandemic crash.
The selling was concentrated. SOXX, the semiconductor ETF, saw $270 million of retail outflows in one day, its largest daily retail withdrawal in at least a year, and $695 million across the week. SOXL, the 3x leveraged semi fund, lost $1.2 billion.
Retail is locking in gains in chips.
Nvidia disagreed This morning Nvidia's board added $150 billion to its buyback authorization. Total now stands at $235 billion, to be executed through fiscal 2028. For scale, that authorization alone is larger than the entire market cap of all but roughly thirty US companies.
Retail sold the sector at a record pace. The sector's biggest company authorized the largest repurchase programme in corporate history. Somebody is wrong.
The bigger story from the weekend
The peace trade died on Saturday
On 25 September Iran's foreign minister put a seven-day plan to US mediators, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart nuclear talks, in exchange for lifting the naval blockade, waiving sanctions on Iranian oil, and a ceasefire across all theatres including Lebanon.
Trump rejected it the next day. His words: "I'm rejecting their deal. They want to make a deal where they open the strait immediately because they are losing so badly." He added that it was what the US "would have maybe agreed to a year ago."
The Wall Street Journal reported he expects bombing to resume after the 3 November midterms. Asked directly by Fox whether strikes before the midterms were still on the table, he said "it's possible, but I just don't want to say that." That is the single most important thing that happened since Friday, and it repriced four asset classes at once.
Oil reversed hard
WTI is up more than 4% this morning to around $96.44, Brent to $108.42. On Friday WTI closed at $92.89 and Brent at $105.40, both falling on ceasefire optimism. Worth noting what the US has actually achieved militarily: roughly 40 million barrels escorted through Hormuz in 48 hours, matching pre-war throughput, with 122 vessels redirected. Washington now believes it holds the waterway. That is precisely why the deal was refused.
Bonds are at generational highs
Ten year at 5.235% this morning, up nearly five basis points. Thirty year at 5.538%. Two year at 4.916%. Friday's close of 5.225% on the ten year was the highest since 2007. The thirty year is at levels last seen in 2004.
Four things are pushing at once: diesel around $6.50 a gallon and petrol near $4.50 feeding inflation, traders pricing hikes at the next two meetings, a deteriorating federal fiscal picture, and AI capex competing for the same pool of capital. JPMorgan's line was that ten year yields could reach roughly 5% before equity multiples start to compress. We are through it.
Gold and silver are breaking
Gold down about 3% this morning to roughly $4,153. Silver down nearly 5% to $61.09.
On Friday both were up. Gold closed +0.91% at $4,337 and silver +1.90% at $65.22. So this is a two-session reversal, not a trend. Gold's record was $5,419.83 on 28 January. It is now down roughly 23% from that.
But look at who is buying
Goldman estimates central banks bought 44 tonnes of gold in July, 158% above the pre-2022 average of 17 tonnes. The three month average sits near 91 tonnes, close to its highest since mid-2025.
Officially reported purchases were 23 tonnes. That is a 21 tonne gap between what central banks say they bought and what the data suggests they actually bought.
Price falling, sovereign accumulation rising, and the buyers not putting their names to it. That is a more interesting chart than the one showing the selloff.
What this week looks like
Tuesday: September consumer confidence and August JOLTS.
Wednesday: August PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, plus Q2 GDP.
Thursday: September ISM manufacturing.
Friday: the September jobs report.
On top of that, somewhere between 19 and 22 separate Fed speaker events, with six on Thursday alone. That is the entire macro picture compressed into four days, into a bond market already at 2007 yields, with oil back above $108 because a ceasefire failed.
Where I come out
Last week the S&P still gained 0.63% and the Nasdaq 1.21% while the ten year broke to a nineteen year high. Equities have spent a month refusing to care about rates. Wednesday's PCE print is where that gets tested properly, because it is the number that decides whether "hikes at the next two meetings" becomes "hikes at the next three."
And the Nvidia buyback is worth holding onto as a question rather than an answer. A $235 billion authorization is either the most confident capital allocation decision of this cycle, or it is what a company does when it has more cash than ideas. We find out which over the next two years, not this week.
Futures are pointing lower into all of it. Dow off around 250, Nasdaq down about 1%.
